Dynamic Analysis of an Epidemic Model With Infectivity in the Incubation Period
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摘要: 建立了一类潜伏期具备传染性的传染病传播模型,根据疾病传播规律求解了疾病消失和持续生存的阈值——基本再生数.对系统的稳定性进行了讨论,得到了系统稳定性条件.最后,以COVID-19为例,解释了各种举措在疾病控制中的作用,并对疫情传播扩散做了探讨和预测.Abstract: A transmission model for infectious diseases with infectivity in the latent periods was established. According to the law of disease transmission, the basic regeneration number, as the threshold of disease disappearance and spread, was solved. The stability of the system was discussed and the stability condition for the system was obtained. With the COVID-19 pandemic as an example, the effects of various measures for disease control were studied. The spread of the pandemic was discussed and predicted. The work makes a reference for epidemic disease control.
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Key words:
- epidemic model /
- global stability /
- basic regeneration number /
- COVID-19
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