Analysis on Transmission Potential and Control Strategies of Zika Virus

FAN Lin-xuan; TANG San-yi

doi:10.21656/1000-0887.380031

Volume 38 Issue 11

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FAN Lin-xuan, TANG San-yi. Analysis on Transmission Potential and Control Strategies of Zika Virus[J]. Applied Mathematics and Mechanics, 2017, 38(11): 1269-1278. doi: 10.21656/1000-0887.380031

Citation:

FAN Lin-xuan, TANG San-yi. Analysis on Transmission Potential and Control Strategies of Zika Virus[J]. Applied Mathematics and Mechanics, 2017, 38(11): 1269-1278. doi: 10.21656/1000-0887.380031

Citation:

FAN Lin-xuan, TANG San-yi. Analysis on Transmission Potential and Control Strategies of Zika Virus[J]. Applied Mathematics and Mechanics, 2017, 38(11): 1269-1278. doi: 10.21656/1000-0887.380031

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Analysis on Transmission Potential and Control Strategies of Zika Virus

doi: 10.21656/1000-0887.380031

School of Mathematics and Information Science, Shanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710062, P.R.China

Funds: The National Natural Science Foundation of China(11471201;11631012)

Received Date: 2017-02-09
Rev Recd Date: 2017-02-20
Publish Date: 2017-11-15

Abstract

Abstract

Currently, Zika virus has spread in more than 65 countries and regions. To estimate the transmission potential of Zika virus and evaluate the effectiveness of the control strategies in Singapore, the classical infectious disease model was employed, and both the least square method and the MCMC method were used to estimate the unknown parameters which can fit the cumulative number of reported cases very well. With the nextgeneration matrix method the basic reproduction number was calculated and its value and confidence interval were evaluated according to the estimated parameter values, which can be verified through comparison between the results obtained from 2 different estimation methods. Furthermore, the effectiveness of different control measures was discussed in more details through sensitivity analyses, which can help verify the key parameters related to the cumulative number of cases and the Zika outbreak. The results show that, for the control of Zika virus in Singapore, the number of screening and the screening rate shall be increased, the quarantine and isolation of infected patients and the mosquito control shall be effectively implemented, and the number of tourists shall be reduced.
- Zika virus,
- basic reproduction number,
- SEIR model,
- parameter estimation,
- validity

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References(19)

References

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